Monday, September 29, 2008

Is the sky falling?

The House version of the Emergency Economic Stabilization (HR3997) bill (BAILOUT!) failed to pass today. The DOW is currently down 683 points.

This version included:

(1) New "Golden Parachute" contracts from firms taking bailout would not be allowed. Existing golden parachute contracts will still be in effect. Betcha most of these execs already have such contracts in place!

(2)Corporations selling bad mortgage debts to the government, who pay their CEOs and other execs more than $500,000, will no longer to be able to deduct the compensation over $500,000 from their taxes. (Does this include stock optins and bonus pay from that calculation?)

(3)Supposedly, though I have only seen this in one report, there is a "clawback" provision. If a bailed out corporation had to restate prior earnings (based on these devalued assets) to a lower number, the executives would have to return (to whom?) the bonuses and incentives that had been based on bloated earnings reports. Indeed, those moneys would have to be ripped out of their hands.

(4) If in five years, the return on these government acquired bailout assets does not equal what the government paid, the President will have to propose to Congress legislation which would require the Financial Industry to make up the difference. Yeah? The whole industry, even the good guys? And if the bad ones no longer exist (for any number of reasons) what then? Believe it when you see it.

How about the cost of administering this bailout program? Valuing the assets, managing the assets (what about foreclosures and deterioration of said property, and selling the assets over time.

Speaking of foreclosures, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (remember him?) said that the Fed cannot change the terms of an assumed mortgage (such as making the interest and/or payoff rate more reasonable)unless it has the majority ownership of the mortgtage backed security (direct loan purchases from a bank is a different case.)

If you are tempted to vote for this legislation because you think it will keep people in their homes, think again: in fact, Treasury will not be able to change the terms of bad mortgages because the Act does not require Treasury to purchase a controlling share in the underlying mortgage backed securities and collateralized debt obligations. The Secretary will be powerless to make any real and substantive change in the terms of mortgage. The Secretary will have NO power to avoid foreclosures and keep families in their homes.


Economists and financial gurus are all over the place on this bailout. Most want the bailout but others say it is not needed. Real helpful. Three days ago, on Friday, Cramer said that the big money folks were already making a run on money markets etc and were moving their money to Treasury Bills. He was very negative about the consequences if the bailout bill was not passed this past weekend. More banks and investment institutions failures. Huge numbers of banks.

And yet. And yet I read about the money made by the folks in the firms that came up with and traded the financial exotics that led to the inflated balloon that has now burst making huge amounts of money, even in 2007.

According to Bloomberg News, the five largest Wall Street firms, including Bear Stearns (bailed out by the government) and Lehman, made $66 billion, which included $39 billion in bonuses. This brought the average4 pay of each employee to $353,089, including $211,849 in bonuses. Great money for screwing the taxpayer.

Politicians and Wall Street keep saying that this is really a bailout for Main Street because with credit currently frozen no one gets lines of creditor loans.

From CNN MONEY:

Most businesses don't keep much cash on hand. They rely on banks' lines of credit to cover them until they get paid by their customers

For each business that can't get funding, the impact is felt by many, experts said. The company may curtail credit to its customers, forcing them to pay more cash up front. It won't buy as much from suppliers or invest in upgrading its operations. And it may have to cut its workforce, or at least postpone expanding it.

Other experts, however, say that most companies can get by for the time being. Credit lines, they point out, usually last for at least a year so banks can't start pulling them willy-nilly unless the terms are broken. And business can better survive a credit squeeze than a major downturn in consumer spending, which has yet to materialize.



How about thinking about getting back to running a business or home finances with mostly cash on hand? Okay, initially a business could really use a line of credit, but to end up in a position years down the road where you can not meet your payroll without drawing money from a line of credit .. that is not good.

I'm still not for this bill, despite the dire predictions, unless the bonus money is riped away from the greedy fingers of thise who brought this on. Say two years' woth of bonus money. Since spent money can't be returned. then maybe the future profits of these companies should be be highly taxed. Okay, I know this won't happen.

Bring back the Puritan stockade!

Place a whole line of stocks near the beautiful Bull sculpture. Three days for each CEO, President, COO, and myriad VPs. A new tourist attraction bringing more bucks to the City of New York.

Market ended up down 777 points. Would have been interesting if it had been 666 points.

One politician said that someone who needs a new washing machine now can't get a loan. Who gets loans for an appliance? Most people charge it (building more credit card debt). As for a new washing machine, a laundromat suffices. Now, if it were a refrigerator that stopped working .....

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Joy of sprinting, ah, winning.

Yesterday I ran the 100 meter, 400 meter, and 200 meter races, in that order. I happened to win all three, which was not a given. I was asked why I participate in these events. I mentioned that it is such a great feeling when you can run at your best, with no pain and no gasping. By pain, I mean burning quads. And by gasping I mean a severe oxygen deficit. Gasping after crossing the finish line is okay, but not while trying to get to that line!

Yesterday my breathing was so much better. I ran the 400m at an even pace until the last curve when I picked it up and went all out to the end. No pain. And though breathing hard, the oxygen was getting where it needed. Zounds. What a feeling! I hardly recognized it.

I ran a 400m in April and not only did the quads burn but the breathing was the pits.(Exercise induced asthma is the problem.) I just edged out the man I was competing against, after being about 55 meters behind as I rounded the last turn. Great joy.

Did I say I wanted to stop running after rounding the first curve? I was out of gas even then!

Back to yesterday. What I did not mention to the reporter was the absolute joy of overtaking and passing someone (maybe winning, maybe not. In this case, winning.) Or the joy of getting out in front at the git go and keeping the lead to the end. Who doesn't like to win? But when you can surpass your own expectations and beat someone you had no expectation of coming near (because the last time you raced with them, they were totally out of reach), well that's exhilarating.

Down right joyous making. Maybe it is all about meeting or exceeding your own expectations.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Say what? 700 Billion?

The Crone barfs!

Say what? $700 billion, right now, please. What's the hurry? The "market" has to run to the John? It took a few years for the financial investment banks to come up with the schemes that got us into this mess. Let them wait while the government comes up with a reasonable, not a hurried plan. Secretary Paulson keeps saying we must hurry. The banks need liquidity so the average consumer and small business person can get loans. Yeah, right.

The assumption is the government will take over these debts, which they admit are so complex they need multiple experts to try to evaluate them. The same experts who helped get us here?

In private industry when a company loans another money, it usually gets good rates and/or equity in the firm. Why should the US Government (taxpayer) not be treated the same?

I listened to part of today's Hearing and am disturbed by some things I heard.

(1) Credit Card and student load default debt coverage? Absolutely not! Banks and others have encouraged credit card debt. Both the consumer who lacks fiscal responsibility and the banks that inundate us with credit card offers are responsible. Let them pay thee price. (I am not as hard on student loan debt. However, let's stick to the main problem.) We do need some moral leadership to reduce personal debt. (Encouraging spend, spend, spend to boost the economy has its price.)

(2)The taxpayer will not abide golden parachute exits from bailed out companies. Not that these folks have not already gotten huge profits from these illiquid schemes (AIG's Fuld, $490 million in stock options and bonuses). Let them walk away with full pockets and the taxpayer will be throwing virtual teabags in the harbor.

(3) No possibility of future review of the Treasury Secretary's actions in this matter by a court of law or review is not acceptable. There should be some liability, even if limited.

(4) What's the doggone rush? This situation has been coming on for some time and now all of a sudden the "market" has lost faith? The "market" is what brought this on! (As well as consumer's lack of knowledge about the equity and mortgages.) Take the time to get it right. My IRA, pension, etc has already lost value. And so it goes.

(5) No to $700 billion! Absolutely not. Where does this figure come from? Is it every asset class that is in default? Infusing some money into the banking system , not taking over the entire consumer debt problem, should be the goal. Secretary Paulson says we need to get liquidity back into the "market". How about a 100 or 200 billion infusion? (I get sick just thinking about it.)

I am not real savvy on credit-debt swaps or the other esoteric financial instruments. I am just someone who has no debt. Why? Because debt is damn scary. Too bad that is not the case for the US Government or the "market"!

Absolutely disgusted. Arrrrgh!